By our Asia correspondent HIDESHI TOKUCHI – President of the Research Institute for Peace and Security (RIPS), Tokyo
Japan’s neighbourhood is an increasingly unstable region with the potential for conflict. Three powers in the region have nuclear weapons: Russia, China and North Korea. As China and North Korea have been deepening their respective partnerships with Russia and helping it continue its aggression on Ukraine, east Asian regional security directly affects Europe today. Both theatres are more connected than ever before.
Taiwan as the region’s hottest spot
There are several hotspots in east Asia: the South China Sea, the East China Sea, the Taiwan Strait and the Korean Peninsula for example. All these are at the forefront of the US-China rivalry, and the Taiwan issue will remain the most serious one.
According to China, Taiwan is at the core of its core interests. China never denies the possibility of annexation of Taiwan by force. It continues to pressure Taiwan by increasing military activities nearby. On the other hand, defence commitment of Taiwan’s closest partner, the US, is always ambiguous, more so as the US president is erratic. Since it may be difficult for China to occupy and fully control Taiwan, an invasion seems less likely, at least in the near future. A hybrid approach, including infiltration and disinformation operations, is more likely.
However, the situation of the Taiwan Strait will remain unstable. Without joint efforts of like-minded countries for deterrence, the entire region will be at great risk of armed conflict, and the conflict might become global.
“The risk to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait continues to be a matter of legitimate concern for Japan, the region and the world.”
Geographically, Taiwan is close to Japan, only 110km away. Any conflicts involving Taiwan would inevitably affect Japan’s own territorial integrity. Taiwan contingencies would affect Japan’s important sea lanes. If China occupied Taiwan, it would make China’s military expansion to the Pacific Ocean much easier and its influence over the South and East China Seas bigger. It would affect the regional balance of power. We should also recall that Taiwan is a critical supplier of high technology, including semiconductors, to the global market.
Japan’s roles for regional peace and security
Thus, the risk to the peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait continues to be a matter of legitimate concern for Japan, the region and the world.
Japan’s own national defence efforts including protection of its southwest islands chain and critical sea lanes must be accelerated. Japan’s host nation support to the US military deployment in Japan must be enhanced. Also, Japan’s security cooperation with other like-minded countries, both regional and extra regional, including NATO members, is important as a strategic message to show their unity and as an instrument to keep the US engaged.
Our Asia correspondent Hideshi Tokuchi has been the President of RIPS, an independent thinktank in Tokyo, since 2021, and writes and speaks about East Asian regional security issues and Japan’s national security policy. Hideshi served as Japan’s first-ever Vice-Minister of Defence for International Affairs from 2014 to 2015.
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